This is a complex scouting formula that I developed that combines stats, advanced stats, size/athleticism, and eye test scouting to give each prospect a number that a)predicts whether that player will be a good/quality NBA player (0 or above), or a possible niche NBA player (below 0), and b)predicts a players two-way impact in the NBA*.
*Note: The player with the highest number isn't always the best player to take #1 overall and so on and so forth because a player with elite scoring potential is rarer than a player with elite defensive potential (i.e. each team has 2-3 defensive stoppers, or what they like to consider premier defensive players, and only 18 players averaged more than 20 ppg during the 2013-2014 season). So to use this formula correctly, after this number is formulated, and it gives you a good idea of who the good/quality NBA players will be out of the draft and which players will have to find a niche to stay in the NBA and be solid/productive players, you should still do more eye test scouting to find the player with the most rare/valuable skills (i.e. elite offensive potential) and draft or mock draft accordingly to what fits your team the best and/or what team needs are. Or just take the best offensive prospect with the highest number in the vicinity.
The eye test scouting part is highly non-debatable. I use a series of questions that I give values (i.e 1-4) to players to use in this part of the formula.
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
G Dion Waiters | 0.62 |
G Damian Lillard | 0.60 |
G Terrence Ross | 0.41 |
G Jared Cunningham | 0.37 |
G Jeremy Lamb | 0.16 |
G Bradley Beal | 0.13 |
G Tony Wroten | 0.10 |
G Evan Fournier* | -0.11 |
G Will Barton | -0.25 |
G Tyshawn Taylor | -0.27 |
G Orlando Johnson | -0.32 |
G Kim English | -0.55 |
G Austin Rivers | -0.67 |
G Kendall Marshall | -0.70 |
G Marquis Teague | -0.95 |
G Scott Machado | -0.96 |
G John Jenkins | -1.05 |
G Kevin Murphy | -1.10 |
G Darius Johnson Odom | -1.38 |
G Doron Lamb | -1.78 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
F Anthony Davis | 1.74 |
F Jae Crowder | 0.59 |
F Terrence Jones | 0.58 |
F Draymond Green | 0.58 |
F Moe Harkless | 0.45 |
F Jared Sullinger | 0.32 |
F John Henson | 0.16 |
F Kris Joseph | 0.05 |
F Andrew Nicholson | 0.03 |
F Royce White*** | -0.07 |
F Jeff Taylor | -0.10 |
F Perry Jones | -0.12 |
F Quincy Acy | -0.15 |
F Arnett Moultrie | -0.17 |
F Thomas Robinson | -0.18 |
F Khris Middleton | -0.20 |
F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | -0.28 |
F Harrison Barnes | -0.33 |
F Quincy Miller | -0.42 |
F Drew Gordon | -0.48 |
F Kevin Jones | -0.55 |
F JaMichael Green | -0.76 |
F Robbie Hummel | -0.83 |
F Hollis Thompson | -0.93 |
F Mike Scott | -1.01 |
F Darius Miller | -1.29 |
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PLAYER | TOTAL |
C Andre Drummond | 0.63 |
C Tyler Zeller | 0.33 |
C Festus Ezili | -0.04 |
C Bernard James | -0.26 |
C Fab Melo | -0.27 |
C Myers Leonard | -0.60 |
C Miles Plumlee | -0.60 |
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* Player did not attend U.S. college and played in Euroleague, Eurocup, ACB, etc.
**Stats are taken from U19 tournament.
***Player was more than likely red flagged by numerous teams due to injury, off-court issues, etc.
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